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The math that decides · Module 3

Financial Modeling and Scenario Thinking

Yield, cash flow, ROI, leverage, FX — and how to compare properties on the same axis

An 8% yield property and a negative-cash-flow property can be the same property.

Agents quote a single number. Developers quote a single number. Yield. ROI. Sometimes "return." The number is always positive and always headline-friendly. What it actually means is rarely interrogated, and the difference between gross yield and net cash flow on the same property can be the difference between a holding asset and a slow-bleeding liability.

This module builds the pro forma from scratch — the same one a private buyer's analyst would build before underwriting a unit. Five metrics, three scenarios (worst, base, best), explicit leverage and FX choices, and a comparison framework that lets you rank candidate properties on the same axis instead of single-metric headline numbers.

What you'll be able to do

  • ·Distinguish the five financial metrics that actually matter (and why "yield" alone is misleading)
  • ·Build a complete pro forma without relying on what the seller gives you
  • ·Run a disciplined worst/base/best scenario with defined boundary rules
  • ·Choose leverage and FX strategy explicitly — not by default
  • ·Compare candidate properties on a normalized framework, not single-metric headlines

Lessons in this module

  1. 1.From Yield to IRR
  2. 2.Building a Real Pro Forma
  3. 3.The Cost Stack You Don't See
  4. 4.Worst, Base, Best — With Discipline
  5. 5.Leverage and FX
  6. 6.Comparing Properties